Fire Doc Now!

Has a coach ever been fired during the postseason?  I’m going to guess no, so the Celtics should probably make history before game 7.

In a classic example of Doc Rivers’ in-game maneuvering, the Celtics, down by 3 points with a foul to give in the last 20+ seconds of game 6 in Cleveland, allowed the Cavs to waste almost 10 seconds before they finally sent Joe Smith to the line. 

On the initial inbounds pass, LeBron James caught the basketball on the baseline corner, and was NOT fouled.  In fact, he passed the ball to Wally Sczcerbiak, who was then fouled after some delay on the Boston side of the court.  On the ensuing inbounds play (after great Celtic defense forced the Cavs to utilize their final timeout) Joe Smith was sent to the line with about 14 seconds left to play.  Upon making both free throws the Celtics set up what should have been a quick three from Eddie House or Ray Allen (who inbounded the ball).  Instead, Doc Rivers set up a “play” that involved misdirection, miscommunication, and mishap.  Errant attempts at “offense” led to the game quickly ending in favor of the undermanned, severely less talented Cavaliers.

Rivers also displayed his tremendous coaching acumen throughout the rest of the night.

First, he left in Glen “Big Baby” Davis despite several misses due to the length of the Cleveland big men occupying air space above the big Boston Cream.  The infinitely longer P.J. Brown sat.  Leon Powe also sat; Powe is undersized, but has shown a knack for finishing around the basket and drawing contact.  Oh, and he’s better than Big Baby. 

Next, Rivers finally relented and played Eddie House over the rapidly decaying Sam Cassell, and the gunner responded with 8 points in 18 minutes–which is about 8 more points than Cassell would have produced. 

Finally, once again, Rivers left Ray Allen in to log a whopping 42 minutes of burn despite ageing ankles, poor production (9 points on 3 of 8 shooting) and pathetic defense on athletic marvels such as Sasha Pavlovic and Wally Sczcerbiak.

Doc has done a poor job in the postseason, plain and simple.  Winning 66 games in the regular season might be the only way his team escapes the second round, merely because posting the league’s best record means 4 home games in a 7 game series rather than 3.  Regardless of how game 7 plays out, it appears that this team doesn’t have what it takes to win it all; or rather, Doc Rivers doesn’t have what it takes.  The roster is perfectly capable of maintaining much more than a basic quorum of wins against any team history can offer, but with a lack of direction from the bench, even a powerhouse can fail to live up to expectations (hello, President Bush). 

Harping on Rivers’ negatives may be beating a dead horse at this point, but leading Doc out to pasture might be the only way the Celtics hang Green 17 before its current crop withers in the summer heat.

Big Second Half Saves Season

You never thought this would be a pretty picture, did you?

In rapid fire, here are my observations from game 5 at the Garden:

• Doc continues to run Sam Cassell out there despite his failure to mesh or contribute on either end of the court.  Eddie House inexplicably sits when the offense falters due to poor spacing and slow ball movement; Eddie’s handle is mediocre, thus he shoots quickly or passes quicker–he’s a walking antidote to Boston’s problems.
• Doc’s substitutions in the second half were better than they have been since the regular season.  While it’s strange that he went to Big Baby Davis in the second half after not playing him at all in the first two quarters, the portly pivot played the role of sparkplug and Rivers kept his vertically challenged big man in the game until just the right moment.
• The Celtics executed poorly inbounding the ball and getting the ball over half during the waning moments of the fourth quarter; should they continue to falter in key situations at such remedial tasks they will not advance past the Pistons or whatever beast comes out of the Western Conference, should they be lucky enough to escape with a win either Friday or Sunday against LeBrontorage.
• Paul Pierce finally showed up offensively, pacing his squad with 29 points.  Pierce played great most of the night, using his strength and length to shoot over Delonte West in several different matchups, consistently getting good looks from inside the painted rectangle.
• Ray Allen was mostly outplayed by Wally Sczcerbiak, ironically the very many he was traded for along with Delonte West, this summer.
• Rajon Rondo was a revelation, dominating the game.  Doc recognized his youthful point man’s play and left him in the entire third and fourth quarters, thankfully.  Rondo, along with Kevin Garnett, carried the Celtics with clutch shooting, preventing the long droughts that have plagued the Green.
• KG owned the glass with 16 boards and did his typical efficiency thing on the offensive end with 26 points and 4 assists.
• The passing that made Boston so overwhelming in the regular season returned in the final 24 minutes, powering the Parquet Posse to a 21 point swing from down 14 in the first half to a 96-89 victory.
• Rajon Rondo made a nice play after the opposing big man buzzed on a pick-and-roll with KG.  Instead of dribbling around the buzzing defender, as the Celtics have done 95% of the time this series, Rondo reversed his pivot foot and broke through the teeth of the defense to create space, which in turn helped open up future moves for the Kentucky product. 
• Rondo also hit two clutch threes that energized the Garden and started the Celtic comback.  When he consistently becomes a threat to make open shots and pull up off the dribble he’ll become an All Star.  Rondo’s ETA at the halfway fame game is 2011.

An Innings Jump Update

 

For those of you who conspire to the Pitch and Innings Counts Are Hogwash Theory, here’s a quick update on Cleveland Indians aces Fausto Carmona and C.C. Sabathia.

Last season, in the process of finishing with the best record in baseball and nearly reaching the World Series, LeBron’s second favorite team rode its two best starters hard.  And I mean hard.

Sabathia, on his way to winning the Cy Young over stiff competition, threw 48.1 more innings than the previous year, and 31 innings more than his career high, set five seasons prior.  In fact, Sabathia hadn’t topped 200 since his career-high 210 innings in 2002.  And we’re talking pre-postseason numbers here.  Forget the 15.1 gassed innings he threw to the tune of an 8.80 ERA against the best the AL East had to offer in the playoffs.

His co-ace and failed closer turned dominant starter, Fausto Carmona, made Sabathia’s incredible 48.1 inch vertical leap seem routine, even for a man with a listed weight of 290 pounds.

Carmona unleashed enough darting sinkers and killer off-speed deliveries in 2007 to post a sexy 3.06 ERA in 215 Major League innings at a mere 23 years of age.  Factor in additional postseason pitches and the young Dominican becomes a prime candidate for regression and injury in 2008 and beyond.  Before his initial callup last season Carmona’s career had followed a sound progression.  From 2003-2005, Fausto’s innings climbed by an average of slightly under 10 per year, up to 173.2 the season before he was summoned to help the big club.  Unfortunately, here’s where the planned faltered.  Had Carmona entered the starting rotation and thrown 185-190 innings in 2006, he could have reasonably thrown the 215 he unfurled at unfortunate hitters in 2007.  But, when the bullpen self-destructed two years ago, Carmona was thrust into the roll of closer, which set back his eventual rise to acedom and helped David Ortiz add to his ever-growing mystique.

The result was a tally of only 102.1 innings in 2006, meaning last year Carmona leapt an astounding 112.2 frames from his previous season, and 41.1 over his career high.  Again, none of this even takes into consideration the tremendous stress of pitching in October–when he pitched allowed 13 hits, 12 walks, and 12 earned runs in notching only 45 outs.

Consequently, both cornerstones of the Indians’ title chances are struggling. 

Sabathia’s issues can’t be ignored, and might cost him heaps of millions of dollars in free agency this winter.  The lefty of lofty largesse has a 7.51 ERA, a 1.77 WHIP, and 37 strikeouts versus 18 bases on balls in 38.1 innings.  Not quite the guy with a 5.65 K/BB ratio the year before.

Carmona’s struggles are less easily picked up by the untrained eye.  In 39.2 innings he’s permitted 40 hits and 31 walks, compared with only 15 punchouts.  Last year he notched a 2.25 K/BB ratio to go with his dominant 3.28 ground ball to fly ball ratio.  This year he’s still forcing hitters to pound the ball into the ground, with an exceptional 3.71 rating, but his solid 2.95 ERA hinders more on luck than his performance.  Carmona has given up only one homerun in 2008, an absurdly low total given an opponents batting average of .276.  When lady luck leaves Carmona, his low ERA will do the same.  An opponents on-base percentage of .408 does not bode well.

 

 

Likely comeback player of the year Cliff Lee could be the next to feel the wrath of an overwhelming innings leap on the shores of Lake Eerie.

There’s always a chance that Carmona convinces his lady to stay with him for the remainder of the year, or that Sabathia “makes adjustments” and regains his 2007 form, but most likely we’re looking at a lost season for the Indians’ two best starters, and probably the team, which sits at two games under .500 in early May.  All this after World Series prognostications from many during Spring Training.  Fortunately for Cleveland, Cliff Lee has returned to Lake-side, and with him brought his rotationmates some relief, but after throwing only 145.1 three-out-sessions of his own last season, the cycle in Cleveland might just be turning itself over.

Halting Global Warming: A Task for The Next Greatest Generation

Please stick with this article till the end on the farce that is ethanol production as a green energy form; skim if you must, but make sure you get the gist of it.  There’s a whole lot more important things going on these days than the playoffs.

Once you’ve read the first article, check out a possible solution to the greatest issue to face the world since WWII.

Paging Doc(tor) Paul Allen

The serendipitous Celtics came out on top in game one, no thanks to Doc Rivers, Paul Pierce, or Ray Allen.

A fortunate roll off a stingy rim with less than a shot clock remaining in the game saved the Celtics from a tie score and the horror of head coach Doc Rivers designing a final play to win game one at the TD Banknorth Garden and maintain home court advantage against LeBron James’s Cavs.  However, long before the game came to such a dramatic end, three central Celtic characters failed to live up to their casting.

First, Doc Rivers.  Boston’s head honcho once again showed his tragic flaw in all its glory.  The first half, and second quarter in particular, highlighted Doc’s questionable substitution patterns.  Rajon Rondo, who had dominated the game in its early proceedings, saw the second unit stumble under Sam Cassell’s direction after the starters handed their lesser known teammates an early 10 point lead. 

While Cassell proved vital in the second half, his slower style poorly complements the faster-paced Celtic second unit.  One could say that had Doc not left Cassell in the game so long in the second quarter the aging lead guard wouldn’t have been in rhythm late in the game when his big shots were needed; an equally logical critic would insist that had Doc merely spelled the young firecracker point guard with Cassell or the forgotten Eddie House’s services and sat an evidently struggling Ray Allen in the game’s second frame, 48th minute heroics might not have been necessary.

Next, we have the two-headed monster of Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, who combined to build a chimney with 16 bricks in 18 field goal attempts.  There’s no easy answer here.  Sometimes shots don’t fall, but on these nights a team must refocus its offensive gameplan.  Pierce and Allen have enough finishing moves to operate on the blocks, freeing up Kevin Garnett to catch and shoot off their initiative, displaying his deft mid-range stroke.  Should the smaller two-thirds of the Boston Three Party continue to falter from profundity Thursday night, posting the two up on the blocks or giving Tony Allen some burn would help ease the strain on the Parquet Posse.

There are lessons to be learned and thanks to be given after a game in which LeBron James looked out of sorts and turned the ball over a whopping 8 more times than he met nylon from the field.  Should Doc find a steady rotation, utilizing his deep roster to its fullest, and help set his two star swingmen back on track, the engine that could 71 times and counting should jump out to its second straight 2-0 series lead.

Sidenote: The Emergence continued against Cleveland, as Perk was a dominant defensive and rebounding force, and solid offensive contributor.  Perkins’ defense on pick-and-rolls was phenomenal.

Never Thought I’d Write This…

But Steven A. Smith actually wrote something I enjoyed today.  If only for the fact that it’s contrary to expectations and he isn’t yelling.  Anyone who saw his arrogance this morning while speaking at the equally mind-numbing Skip Bayless (ignore the spelling and the random reason behind it, but seriously I’d sign that petition) knows what I’m talking about.  Anyways, give it a read, it’s decently well done.

ChrisPaulAThon’08

Hey, Hawks fans, remember this guy?

In the scheme of things (what a vague phrase), winning an MVP isn’t a big deal.  You can win championships, make an exorbitant amount of money, and be elected to the Hall of Fame without ever winning the award (Scottie Pippen, for example).

But, that doesn’t make Chris Paul losing to KOBE BRYANT! acceptable.  As I’ve previously written, Kobe should have finished well behind Paul, and KG, and LeBron, for that matter.  The stats favor Paul, the team records are almost identical, and Paul’s team is lottery bound (in the East!) without him; the Lakers might even be a playoff team in the West without their preeminent, and now have a shot at becoming a dynasty thanks to their fleecing of Pau Gasol from Chris Wallace.

So, while it’s not a terrible thing to see a player of Bryant’s quality earn a lifetime achievement award, it’s a shame it had to come in the wrong year. 

Feliz Cinco de Mayo

Aparentemente Ozzie Guillen sabe bien de lo que habla.

En honor del Cinco de Mayo, voy a escribir un poco en español sobre el experto instigador Ozzie Guillen.

No es nada nuevo, pero Guillen es una persona absolutamente absurda.  El mánager de los White Sox nunca se edita–deja que lo hagan los editores.  Hace pocos años el dijo que Jay Mariotti, un periodista bien establecido en Chicago y nacionalmente, era un “maricón.”  Después él dijo que en su país maricón no necesariamente quiere decir que un hombre es homosexual, pero es poco hombre (ironía alerta!).  Esto es sólo verdad a medias: en Venezuela cosas son diferentes, sí, pero Guillen ya había vivido en los estados unidos por décadas quando usó esa palabra.  Por eso usaba una excusa fracasada.

Es posible que ayer Guillen superara qualquier cosa inoportuna que ha dicho hasta este momento en su carrera.  En una explosión fenomenal, Ozzie refirió al infamoso ex-mánager de los Cubs, Lee Elia, quien en 1983 llamó a los fanáticos de los Cubs “mamavergas sin trabajos”: 

“How about the Cubs celebrating that Lee Elia bull[bleep]? How many times do I curse people out? I will make a lot of money with my [stuff]. I have to keep going because in the future Ozzie will need money, and I can say, ‘Here, give me money, here’s the 10-year anniversary of my time I called [Jay] Mariotti stuff and the time I went on the radio and cursed out Mike North.’ “

Durante la misma pre-partido entrevista el maldijo infinitas veces, diciendo que Chicago amará siempre a los Cubs sin prestar atención a lo que hacen los White Sox y que todos se estaban aterrando sobre una sola semana mala. 

Despues de perder 5 partidos consecutivos, su equipo actualmente resida en la segunda posición en su división central, 1.5 partidos detrás de los Minnesota Twins con 14 victorias y 15 derrotas.

Robando un poco de la franqueza que a Guillen le encanta utilizar, yo diría que la persona aterrándose más que nadia es, de hecho, nuestro favorito pequeño Napoleón.

Wake Up Call or Curtain Call for Doc?

A win Sunday in Boston means Rivers lives to coach another day.  A loss should mean time to turn the reigns over to top assistant Tom Thibodeau.

Doc Rivers, you’re officially coaching for your job.

Rivers has done two things extraordinarily well this season: unite a roster that could have gone sour, but had every reason to come together, and allow defensive specialist Tom Thibodeau to run the less glamorous side of the ball, a move that would be difficult for most head coaches to stomach–this isn’t the NFL after all, there are no coordinator positions.  His substitution patterns haven’t been perfect–far from it, in fact–but his poor in-game management is nothing new.  While much of the media has given Rivers a break because most of his Celtics squads have had less talent than Paris Hilton, Bill Simmons has led the fire Doc bandwagon for years due to his inability to nail down a rotation or communicate simple strategies and concepts in the waning moments of close games.  The Atlanta Hawks have successfully illuminated all Rivers’s blemishes during the series’s three contests in his former hometown.

Fortunately for Jeremiah Rivers’s father, the former coach of the year’s weaknesses have been sufficiently masked for most of the season.  He was handed a roster tailor-made for him: the starting five set, and few legitimate options off the bench.  However, as the season progressed the team evolved.  A short bench became one of the deepest in the entire association. 

Herein lies the problem.  Given this surplus of talent, Rivers has faltered.  P.J. Brown, a late-season pick up more for his wisdom than ability, has played more than Tony Allen, the team’s best defensive shooting guard, a guy who should have been developed all season for the purpose of guarding someone like Joe Johnson.  For some reason, Brown has been the one on the court in crucial situations laboring to even find energetic, athletic youths like Josh Smith and Al Horford in order to box out.  By the time his failing, elderly vision allows him to locate the high-flying Hawk big men, it’s too late.  He’s a relic. 

Atlanta’s biggest strength thus far has been its ability to convert via the offensive glass, as evidenced by big fourth quarter rebounds Friday night with the game on the line.  Allowing Ludacris’s favorite team second and third chances resulted in the Hawks scoring on an incredible sixteen consecutive possessions in game six.  Banner seventeen will be lifted from right under the Celtics’s noses if they don’t lock down their bedroom window.

The solution?

Play Leon Powe more; in his last two appearances The Show has netted 19 points and grabbed 11 boards in 38 minutes.  Sit P.J. Brown and hope you’ll need his wily, physical play in future matchups with heftier big men.  Utilize Tony Allen’s abilities rather than watch ex-Celtic Joe Johnson abuse Tony’s namesake for 48 minutes.  Play Sam Cassell sparingly–he was brought in as a security blanket, not as the furnace.  Tap Eddie House on the shoulder earlier and more often.  Bibby’s brother-in-law played a pivotal role during the Celtics’ 66 regular season wins, and shouldn’t be forgotten. 

Oh, and while you’re at it, give the team some direction at the end of games.  I’m thinking Rajon Rondo forcing a three at the buzzer wasn’t the plan.  I’m also thinking that playing Rajon when the team was trying to score quick baskets in the final two minutes might have been a good idea, and inserting Eddie House when down by three in the game’s final seconds might have prevented an ill-fated, forced fade away out of the hands of a career 22.9% shooter from profundity.

Many, including Doc Rivers himself, have used officiating as a crutch for Boston.  This is nonsense.

The refs have been questionable.  Paul Pierce’s sixth foul was comedic.  The 47-25 disparity between free throw attempts in Atlanta is discouraging.  But when one squad finishes the season with 29 more victories than its counterpart, none of this should matter.

Go back to the basics, Doc.  Watch tape of the regular season.  Follow those substitution patterns.  Do some thinking during the final moments of game seven.  Because should Sunday afternoon provide us with a finale worthy of such a shocking series, it could be your last at the helm of basketball’s most storied franchise.

The Rays ARE Contenders

Despite now being D-less, the Rays are off to a hot start.

The Tampa {(Bay) Devil} Rays are currently allowing 4.0 runs per game!

This should be headline news because it’s quite a change from recent, and past, and the team’s entire, history.  Last season the Rays gave up a breathtaking 5.8 each contest.  Those nearly two runs a game the Rays have netted themselves have converted an MLB-worst .407 winning percentage into a nice .571 mark heading into the weekend’s matchup with the first place Red Sox, who rest just one half game ahead of these pesky sea creatures from the south.

While most will call Tampa’s early start a fluke, the team is not playing significantly above its collective head.  Last season the Bay Bashers scored 4.8 runs per game; they’re plating 4.8 thus far in 2008.  Furthermore, TB’s early season production shouldn’t drop significantly with Carl Crawford and Carlos Peña underperforming even their lowest expectations and the failure up the middle of Jason Bartlett and Akinori Iwamura, as well as the imminent return of the promising Rocco Bald…well, nevermind on the last one.  While Eric Hinske will surely tail off, he remains the lone Ray performing above his ability offensively.  The difference has clearly been the pitching–and there’s no fluke here either.

I guess it’s not so bad being a Rays fan after all.

The pen has been excellent, which is likely to change considering the nature of its make-up (mostly above-average vets pitching out of their minds), but excellent should merely fade toward quality.  The starting rotation has been mostly solid, highlighted by James Shields’ 2.54 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 39 innings pitched and Edwin Jackson’s surprising 3.86 ERA in 30.1 innings.  This is a staff sure to face some growing pains–that’s what happens when James Shields is your rotation’s elder statesman at only 26. 

But, while regression can be expected from individual starters, there is reason to believe collective regression will not occur.  Scott Kazmir is set to make his first start of the season this weekend against Boston, whom he has routinely baffled, Matt Garza has missed signicant time and underperformed when on the mound, and a slew of pitching prospects continue to develop their repertoires in the minors (Jake McGee, Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, David Price, et al).  

This year’s version of the AL East’s perennial doormat is fully capable of staying in the hunt until September, most likely ending the season between 80-85 victories and finishing third in the division.  But with the struggles in New York and Toronto, along with the inevitable fall from grace in Baltimore, Tampa could even sneak as high as second, finishing in the top half of baseball’s richest division for the first time in the team’s history.

Couple Tampa’s current success with impending arrivals of young talent the Mickey Mouse Club would envy (including the number one overall pick in the draft this summer), a stylish new ballpark on the horizon, and pillars entrenched at first, third, left, and center, and you’ve got yourself quite a future.  Now if they could only get this name business straightened out.