Whither Zack Thomas?

 

This is Zach Thomas.  I don’t want him to play for the Patriots; however, the former Miami linebacker would be nice.

With the news that Zack Thomas’s reign in Miami has come to an end, the first thought that popped into my head was, “Could he be coming to Foxboro?”

Thomas appears to be the perfect fit for the Patriots: he’s smart, he’ll want to win above all else, he’ll probably play for a minimal salary and demand only a one-year commitment given his injury issues, he knows the game–something the Patriots value at middle linebacker, and the team could use a little more depth at the position.

Signing Thomas might allow New England to focus on the defensive backfield in the off-season and continue their strategy of drafting the best player available–the best way to maintain a run of success in the NFL–, so, don’t be surprised if the Pats add insult to injury one year after fleecing the Dolphins of the NFL’s best trash-talker, Wes Welker.

Congrats, New York…

Archie Manning’s loins are not only 50% responsible for the past two Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks, but approximately 8,345,762,349,550 MasterCard commercials. 

Seriously, you just beat the best team ever.  I know haters are gonna say that’s no longer the case, but you know better.  The Pats may have dropped the ball, but the Giants were always there to pick it up.  This was far from New England’s best game; the inability to move the football was nearly as shocking as the fact that almost no real adjustments were made by the Gillettes, but the crux of this issue was Giant: Tom Brady didn’t have time to do his thang.

The Giant defensive line pressured Brady more than any team the entire season, showing that the true reason for all the scoring records wasn’t Brady’s sexy butt chin or Randy Moss’s affinity for “straight cash, homey,” but rather the offensive line’s dominance.  That dominance was not there Sunday against the Giants, which is why the Patriots won’t be receiving their invitations to the G.O.A.T. Club any time soon, or ever, most likely.

The Pats let the perfect season slip through their fingertips, and the Giants seized the moment.  It’s pretty damn good to be Archie right now, ain’t it?

Some Serious Senator Specter Spygate Sketchiness

 

While a more appropriate title might have included some mention of the Patriots’ involvement in this whole “Spygate” mess, I liked the alliteration so I went with it instead.

Senator Arlen Specter, pictured above, has decided to get himself some pub.  In order to do this, he has thrown out the biggest bluff I’ve seen in quite a while, making statements about Congress taking away the NFL’s antitrust exemption, which WILL NOT HAPPEN.  Specter just wants people to know his name and to sound all righteous so he’s jumped on this issue long after the initial investigation was conducted.  No one wants the NFL to suffer as a business, because football is America’s sport, and politicians want Americans to be happy.  So they’re not messing with a billion dollar industry that makes their constituents giddy at least once a week.

Now, as far as the new evidence that has come out, albeit not so convincing, this stuff is slightly damning.  The Patriots look terrible, the NFL looks terrible, and since Bill Belichick won’t be saying a word about it to the media other than “no comment” any time soon, PR man Stacey James is going to have to deal with it almost entirely by himself.

Also very intriguing is this fact lifted from Wikipedia (clearly I use only the most reliable of sources): “Specter’s #2 contributor for the year was Pennsylvania cable company, Comcast, which was engaged in an open disagreement with the NFL over licensing of the NFL Network.”

Hmm, timing seems pretty interesting too, just days before the Super Bowl–not at all a political move from a political pro or anything.

Sadly, or perhaps thankfully since this is a two-week-break year and we’ve heard and read every possible angle on the game and the two teams, the Super Bowl itself has been cast aside momentarily. 

Anyways, I think the Patriots are going to win because they’re better.  That’s my analysis.  Just watch the damn thing and enjoy all the festivities.  You’ve got your one Sunday a year when it’s not only permissible, but expected, to drink.  Have fun.

Looking for Some Insight

 

I’m looking for some clarity on a few topics.

I’m a sports dork. Know this before reading on. I sit around and think about potential trades, how I would pitch certain batters, who the best player at each position is or who’s underrated or overrated by the media–these things interest me. If you’re reading this blog then I’m guessing these things are somewhat interesting to you as well (unless you’re a friend or relative of mine, in which case, thanks). So, this won’t really be an insightful post, but instead will be one looking for insight.

The following list is a series of questions and observations that make me hope the bright minds of statistical analysis in the world of sports read my blog:

• How valuable is winning a face-off? It surely is important, but can there be any meaningful analysis of a team’s face-off performance?
• I would like power play efficiency to be kept as a stat–not just how many goals per power plays are scored, but how quickly.
• Making the first free throw must be more important than making the second or third attempt because of two reasons: at any level below the NBA teams shoot one-and-one before 10 fouls, and the final free throw attempt is live–if the shooter misses at least there’s a chance for an offensive rebound, while beforehand a miss is simply a lost opportunity to score.
• An offensive rebound, by definition, is harder to get than a defensive rebound. More defensive rebounds are grabbed per game, and defensive players generally have position over an offensive player. Not only that, but one player has to be shooting, and if you’re shooting, you can’t be boxing out. So, how much more important is offensive rebounding than defensive rebounding?
• What is the most efficient number of games played for the average position player? There is no way that Cal Ripken Jr. could have given his team the maximum value possible given that he never rested and therefore was almost never at 100%.
• Is there a most important position in football on defense? Quarterback would be the best place to invest most heavily on offense, is there an equivalent across the line of scrimmage?
• How much more valuable is a hit than a walk? The answer will obviously depend on the situation but if a batter gets a single with a man on base, the runner will have an opportunity to take more than one base, while on a walk that is most likely not the case.
• What is the slowest a Major League pitcher could routinely throw his fastball and still be successful? Could a guy theoretically throw 75 mph if he threw off-speed pitches at 50 mph or is there a certain threshold required to throw hitters off? Conversely, could a pitcher throw only fastballs is he threw above 110 mph?

That’s all I got for now, you have anything to add?

Quick Clicks for 1/10

 

I recently wrote about how size is misunderstood in the NBA, and John Hollinger, the best basketball writer on the planet, explains the phenomenom of the “lack” of centers nowadays in great detail.

Here’s Chad Ford’s updated list of NBA Draft center prospects.  I find this list quite underwhelming, personally, but at least there’s some upside in the number one spot.

TrueHoop posted a pretty cool article about the legend of “making change” off the top of the backboard. 

I’ve been thinking for a while that Mike Conley is awfully similar to Rajon Rondo.  Here’s some further evidence, albeit from a fantasy basketball writer.

The Celtics succumbed to the Jason Richardson last night.  The guy was absolutely unstoppable–Paul Pierce had a hand in his face on countless fall away jumpers that touched nothing but nylon in the fourth quarter.  The C’s really missed Ray Allen and Big Baby last night, as their effort was lacking until it was too late, partially in part to a lack of options off the bench.

***

Looks like Brett Favre will be playing another year (or two, or three, or…).  You know Chris Berman will be ecstatic.

The Cowboys might have a crisis in their passing game entirely unrelated to Jessica Simpson.  Meanwhile, Marvin Harrison should be good to go like Taco Bell against San Diego, and Deion Branch is ready to suit up for Seattle.

The annual Tony Dungy retirement talk has started.  I’m going to go ahead and say he’ll be back.  Being a head coach in the NFL is more of an addiction than a career; most of these guys would rather die in the film room than spend an extra five years with their families and millions in the bank.

***

Nothing much is happening in baseball these days, just a couple lesser deals being consumated for fallen stars.  Oh, and all that Roger Clemens crap, but that’s too messy to worry about so we’ll just focus on games and trades, etc.

Here’s a calendar for the upcoming season.  Can’t wait for Valentine’s Day this year when my first love reports back to duty.

***

Since no one cares about the NHL except me, generally, I’ll list the hockey links last. 

Some East and West season preview/review action from John Buccigross.

Zdeno Chara will be starting for the East in the All Star Game, not so sure how I feel about that, but he has most definitely been a hell of a lot better this season than last.  Tim Thomas and Marc Savard got snubbed, but I’m not sure who I would have them replace on the roster.  Should injuries occur I would expect they’d be at the top of the list for replacements.

***

Finally, don’t forget to vote when the time comes!  And I’m not talking about for any silly All Star game either.

The Madden Curse Continues: The Vince Young Edition

Accepting the cover of this game may have been the worst professional decision Vince Young could have made–well, outside of following Ricky Williams’s “training regimen”. 

After a promising rookie season, pundits expected Vince Young to improve upon his initial numbers and lead his team in 2007.  They should have known better.  Young found himself on the cover of Madden 2008–an “honor” that spells doom no matter who graces the front side of the most famous sports game in the world.

While the Titans did improve record-wise from 2006 to 2007, Vince Young certainly did not.  His overall quarterback rating jumped from a paltry 66.7 to a poor 71.1.  Making up for this incremental jump in efficiency (thanks to a nearly 11% spike in completion percentage), Young cut his touchdowns from 12 to 9 and increased his interception total from 13 to 17, impressive considering he threw the ball just under 16 times a game.  His rushing stats, his most outstanding category, also fell in year two.  Young rushed for 157 fewer yards in 2007 and his Yards Per Carry fell 1.5 yards.

All-in-all, 2007 was not too kind to the former Texas star, who single-handedly willed his inferior alma mater to victory over the 33rd NFL franchise, the USC Trojans, in the 2006 BCS Championship game.  But, looking at the record of past Madden coverboys, this should come as no surprise.  The following excerpt was taken from the Wikipedia page linked above (“spells doom“):

Garrison Hearst (1999)

Garrison Hearst was the first player to ever be featured on a Madden cover, appearing on Madden NFL 99. Hearst’s 1998 season was the best of his career, rushing for 1,570 yards and seven touchdowns. He led the San Francisco 49ers to the playoffs and a wild card win over the Green Bay Packers, but on the first play of the divisional game versus the Atlanta Falcons, he suffered a bad ankle break and his team would go on to lose the game. He did not play again until 2001.

(It is worth noting that there are two versions of the Madden NFL ’99 cover, one with Hearst and the more common one with John Madden.)

Barry Sanders and Dorsey Levens (2000)

Barry Sanders shared the cover with the then-customary picture of John Madden on Madden NFL 2000. However, a week before training session began in 1999, Sanders suddenly retired – ending his career and leaving the Detroit Lions without their star running back of the previous 10 years. Sanders’ part in the curse is debated because he is not pictured alone on the box, and he had willingly retired. Also, unlike other victims of the curse who had various problems in the years they appeared on the cover, Sanders rushed for 1,491 yards in his final season, and was closing in on the all time rushing record then held by Walter Payton.

Dorsey Levens was featured on the 2000 cover that was released in PAL regions. Levens rushed for 1,034 yards that season.

Eddie George (2001)

Eddie George, then of the Tennessee Titans, who graced the Madden NFL 2001 box, is often said to be the next ‘cursed’ player, even though in the year he was on the cover, he had career highs in yardage and touchdowns. Curse advocates point to the 2001 season following his appearance on the cover, during which he averaged only 3 yards per carry and rushed for career lows of 939 yards and 5 touchdowns due to a nagging toe injury that bothered him the entire season. For the rest of his career, he never averaged more than 3.4 yards per carry.

George’s curse can be argued to have started the year he was on the cover because in the 2001 AFC Divisional Playoff game George had a costly fumble that lost the game for Tennessee. He also fumbled 8 times during the 2000 regular season, losing a career high 4 fumbles. In a playoff game against the Ravens, Eddie George bobbled a pass that was intercepted by Ray Lewis who ran it back for a touchdown eventually being the winning score.

Daunte Culpepper (2002)

Former Minnesota Vikings star quarterback Daunte Culpepper appeared on the Madden NFL 2002 cover after throwing for nearly 4,000 yards and 33 touchdowns while rushing for 470 yards and 7 more scores in the 2000 season. However, Culpepper struggled with turnovers in the first 11 games of the 2001 season, throwing 13 interceptions and only 14 touchdown passes. A back injury ended his season in the 11th game.

Marshall Faulk (2003)

Running back Marshall Faulk of the St. Louis Rams, who was on the Madden NFL 2003 cover, suffered an ankle injury, missing five games. He did amass nearly 1,600 total yards (953 rushing) and 10 touchdowns in limited time in 2002; however, it was a steep decline from his 2,000 yard and 21 touchdown campaign of 2001. He never broke through the 1,000 yards rushing mark for the rest of his career. 2002 was also a dismal year for the Rams as a team as they finished with a 7-9 record, coming off of a strong 14-2 season that led to a Super Bowl appearance the year before.

Michael Vick (2004)

Five days after Madden NFL 2004 was released, which featured Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Vick on the cover, he was injured during a preseason game against the Baltimore Ravens, suffering a fractured right fibula. Vick played in only the last 5 regular season games, finishing with just 585 yards passing and 4 touchdowns. The Atlanta Falcons missed the playoffs and were already out of contention by the time Vick returned from his injury. The Falcons finished the season with a record of 5-11, a drop from their 9-6-1 record the season prior.

Ray Lewis (2005)

Madden NFL 2005 featured Ray Lewis of the Baltimore Ravens, the first defensive player ever to appear on the cover of a Madden game. It was Lewis’ first season without a single interception, after posting a career-high 6 the previous year, although interceptions are a secondary statistic for linebackers. He recorded 147 tackles in 15 games played. The Baltimore Ravens also failed to make the playoffs that season after winning their division the year before.

Donovan McNabb (2006)

QB Donovan McNabb, who was featured on the cover of Madden NFL 06, led the Philadelphia Eagles to Super Bowl XXXIX with a 13-3 regular season record to face the New England Patriots. He ended 2004 throwing just shy of 4,000 yards and throwing for 31 passing touchdowns with only 8 interceptions. He also rushed for an additional 3 TDs. However, during the 2005-2006 season, in which he was on the Madden cover, McNabb suffered a sports hernia, but elected to play until after the November 14th game with the Dallas Cowboys. During this game, McNabb was knocked down after an interception return by Roy Williams, aggravating the injury. He then elected to have a season-ending surgery that was required to repair the injury. The Eagles season was already lost at that point, with them finally finishing 6-10 and in last place of the NFC East.

Shaun Alexander (2007)

Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander, who appeared on the cover of Madden NFL 07, had one of the best statistical seasons ever in the 2005-2006 season, as he rushed for 1,880 yards and scored what was a record 28 total touchdowns (27 rushing). Alexander, who had missed one start in his previous 64 contests, fractured the 4th metatarsal in his foot after he was on the cover. He missed six starts and failed to rush for 1,000 yards for the first time since 2000. Additionally, his touchdown record from the previous year was broken by LaDainian Tomlinson, who scored 31 touchdowns in 16 games.

Vince Young and Luis Castillo (2008)

Tennessee Titans QB Vince Young, who appeared on the cover of Madden 08, threw 2,456 yards with 9 passing touchdowns and 17 interceptions in the season after his cover appearance. Although the Titans managed to make the playoffs for the first time in Young’s career, he left the final game of the season early with a right quadriceps muscle injury, reinjuring the same muscle that had caused him to miss a start October 21 against the Houston Texans. The Titans’ final game was a wildcard loss to the the San Diego Chargers.

Year	Team	G	Att	Comp	Pct	Att/G	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	20+	40+	Sck	SckY	Rate
2006	Tennessee Titans	15	357	184	51.5	23.8	2,199	6.2	146.6	12	3.4	13	3.6	53	33	1	25	129	66.7
2007	Tennessee Titans	15	382	238	62.3	25.5	2,546	6.7	169.7	9	2.4	17	4.5	73	24	5	25	157	71.1

San Diego Chargers DT Luis Castillo appeared on the cover of the first-ever Spanish language version of Madden NFL 08. Castillo, during the 2007 NFL season, suffered an ankle injury that forced him to miss 6 games. Likewise, his stats from the season before, where he also only played in ten games, showed a statistical drop in virtually every defensive category.

***

Marshall Faulk, Ray Lewis, Mike Vick, Donovan McNabb, Shaun Alexander, Daunte Culpepper…the list goes on.  All promising players, all with Pro Bowl talent, all fell to the darkest depths of their careers post cover. 

Let’s just hope Tom Brady declines the cover of Madden 2009.

Football Chatter

 

Chris Berman probably tells Brett Favre he’s making a run at the sack record every time he sees him, hoping for some Michael Strahan-like results with his man crush.

Who didn’t vote for Tom Brady for MVP?  I mean, seriously, the greatest season in the history of quarterbacks didn’t warrant your vote?  Brett Favre’s a great story and all, but come on.  Did Chris Berman get an MVP vote this year or something?

I was rooting for Tennessee during the Divisonal Round because they are significantly worse than the Jags–the typical run dominant team that scares everyone during the play-offs.  But, don’t be fooled by all the hype and the “no one wants to play the Jags” talk that tries to make it like the home team is the underdog.  The Pats are still substantially better than Jacksonville.  Unless the Pats play below their abilities and the Jags play at their best, owning the line of scrimmage and controlling the clock, New England should prevail. 

The final four in the AFC are spectacular.  All four teams are legitimate Super Bowl contenders.  The NFC isn’t too shabby either, with the Cowboys and Packers leading the way; it has been a great year in football, and this Saturday and Sunday make up the best football weekend all season, featuring four potentially dynamic games. 

I think the Colts have to be solid favorites over the Chargers–San Diego was terrible against Tennessee for much of the game and wasn’t consistent during the regular season.  If Indianapolis can hold the Charger rushing attack to a reasonable game instead of a dominant one, the Colts should own the day at the RCA Dome.

As far as the NFC is concerned, I’m going with the two favorites once again–Dallas and Green Bay have been the best teams in their conference all season, and playing against less than intimidating opponents at home, I see no reason for anything other than two match-ups next weekend of the top four teams in the NFL. 

Should be phenomenal football from here on out.

What Comes After a Dynasty?

Dedication to finding value in every move has football fans asking, “What comes after a dynasty?” 

The Patriots just completed the greatest regular season in the history of football, and perhaps even American sports as a whole.  Their mission is far from done, with three more victories required to make it the greatest season ever, but there’s something else I want to talk about: what comes after February 3rd?

The Pats, having lost their own first round pick due to that pesky little “spygate” issue, would feel the heat of not having a first rounder of their own this off-season, except that the 49ers bailed them out by essentially giving away the 7th overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft.  In a sad twist for the rest of the NFL, not only did the Patriots turn the 28th pick in the 2007 Draft into the #7 pick in 2008, they acquired a 4th rounder last year as a side note–a side note they turned into #81, Randy Moss.

With such a high pick, what should New England do?

Given that they have an overall excess of talent, and if they choose to do so can re-sign or improve their roster through free agency to the point where almost every position will be filled prior to the draft, they have a few options:

1. Select a potential stud with their pick, taking the best available player, perhaps filling a need for a young middle linebacker with Ohio State LB James Laurinaitis.
2. Trade up and make a big move for a sure-fire All-Pro caliber talent, such as Arkansas RB Darren McFadden, LSU DL Glenn Dorsey, or Virginia DE Chris Long.
3. Trade down, picking up extra assets to help continue their incredible run of success since Adam Vinatieri made them champions against the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI.  Currently Dallas is the only team with multiple first rounders (#22 from the Browns and their own pick, still to be determined based on their playoff finish), but trade activity should pick up in the months leading up to the draft, giving teams a chance to net an extra first rounder or other attractive assets that would allow the Pats to move down and still pick up a quality player in the first round.

Based on their history under Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli, I would expect the Pats to eschew option #2 for either option #1 or #3, with an inclination towards #3.  Stockpiling young players with great talent is always nice, but especially when you avoid paying top-dollar–which is what a top-5 pick costs.  Instead of paying one player $40 or $50 million over 6 years, why not trade down and get three or four players for the same cost? 

Squeezing the most possible value out of every opportunity–via the draft, trades, or free agency–is the foundation of the philosophy that has led to the question “What comes after a dynasty?” getting airtime on the NFL Network, while the man who once led the opposing viewpoint, Mike Ditka, is out of coaching and his pick-who-would-be-king, Ricky Williams, will likely continue his epic odyssey for a new team in 2008.

Quick Clicks

Here are some quick clicks for you today since it appears, as of 4:21 p.m., that nothing will move me to write a full out post.

If Bill Parcells were a politician he would be accused of waffling. 

Chris Simon gets a 30 game suspension.  Doesn’t seem like a harsh enough penalty to me.

An interesting piece from ESPN.com by J.A. Adande about the Boston Celtics and race.

Bill Simmons’ annual NBA Trade Value article.  I’m not sure I agree with some of his rankings, see if you do.

It’s almost as if T.O. enjoys pissing off his quarterbacks.

Milton Bradley says he’ll be ready for opening day.  If he is, won’t San Diego be sorry for passing on the guy at one year and only $5 million guaranteed instead of trading for Jim Edmonds?

The Todd Bertuzzi-Steve Moore mess gets messier.  I believe when someone takes a cheap shot the standard retaliation is FACING him and then beating tar out of him, not punching him from behind.

Check out this video of the Big Bad Bruins, courtesy of BostonSportsRants.  It’s amazing how things get twisted; Roger Clemens got a free pass up until The Mitchell Report while Barry Bonds got roasted and the Boston Bruins went into the stands back in the day and now it’s looked upon as legendary while the Indiana Pacers are hoodlums for what they did at the Palace a few years ago.  Think skin color has anything to do with that?

Check out this video some of my friends made for class day back in 2004 before we graduated from high school.  5eva 4eva!

Could a lack of hops not only prevent success in the NBA but also harm our social lives?  Let’s hope not.

Pensamientos al Azar Sobre el Futbol Americano

Why is Brian Westbrook such a great player?  The ONLY thing he cares about is winning. 

Philadelphia Eagles running back Brian Westbrook pulled one of the most unselfish, team-first moves I’ve seen in a while.  With the 2 minute warning approaching the Eagles handed the ball off to Westbrook up 10-6 in the 4th quarter against the potent Dallas Cowboys.  After breaking through the hole and heading unmolested toward the end zone, Westbrook chose to avoid more personal glory, eschewing the desire to reach pay dirt, and went down inside the one yard line.  Westbrook knew that the ONLY way the Coyboys had any slimmer of a chance was for him to score, giving Tony Romo and his ‘Boys a shot at scoring quickly, recovering an onside kick, and scoring again.  Despite the improbability of this scenario, it has happened before.  Westbrook chose to assure his team victory by going down, allowing Donovan McNabb to simply kneel until the game was over.  A tip of the cap to Westbrook, who just become one of my favorite players.

***

The Pats survived today against the Jets.  It was nice to see the emergence of a running game with the inclement weather at Foxboro, which should ease the worry in the back of every Patriot fan’s mind about the team’s inability to move the ball should the passing game falter.  Unfortunately Tom Brady’s performance today in the wind could prevent him from breaking Peyton Manning’s single season quarterback rating record and makes setting a new passing touchdowns record more difficult, needing 5 in the final two games (although Miami, fresh off a win, could let him get to 50 TDs by the end of the first half).